Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques

2. Semester Master: 1st Study cycle

The students: • understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times • know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice • are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques • know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically

2. Semester: no information

Part A - Forecasting Methods: • Overview of different forecasting methods • Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression) • Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method) Part B - Scenario techniques: • Overview of different scenario techniques • Application options and examples

Backhaus, Klaus et al. (2011) Multivariate Analysemethoden, Heidelberg Faschingbauer, M.(2013) Effectuation – Wie erfolgreiche Unternehmer denken, entscheiden und handeln, Stuttgart. Hassani, B. (2016) Scenario analysis in risk management: Theory and practice in finance, Wiesbaden. Martelli, A. (2014) Model of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity, London. Romeike, F.& Spitzner, J. (2013) Von Szenarioanalyse bis Wargaming: Betriebswirtschaftliche Simulationen im Praxiseinsatz, Weinheim. Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D.(2016) Superforecasting, die Kunst der richtigen Prognose, Frankfurt.

• Module exam (Data Analytics & Business Modeling, Risk Management & Monitoring, Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques, Mergers & Acquisitions) • Online questions

German

2

33

1.5

• Blended Learning

2

Thilo Grundmann

1

2

integrated lecture

Compulsory

none