Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques

2. Semester Master: 1st Study cycle

The students:
• understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times
• know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice
• are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques
• know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically

2. Semester: no information

Part A - Forecasting Methods:
• Overview of different forecasting methods
• Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression)
• Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method)


Part B - Scenario techniques:
• Overview of different scenario techniques
• Application options and examples

Backhaus, Klaus et al. (2011) Multivariate Analysemethoden, Heidelberg
Faschingbauer, M.(2013) Effectuation – Wie erfolgreiche Unternehmer denken, entscheiden und handeln, Stuttgart.
Hassani, B. (2016) Scenario analysis in risk management: Theory and practice in finance, Wiesbaden.
Martelli, A. (2014) Model of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity, London.
Romeike, F.& Spitzner, J. (2013) Von Szenarioanalyse bis Wargaming: Betriebswirtschaftliche Simulationen im Praxiseinsatz, Weinheim.
Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D.(2016) Superforecasting, die Kunst der richtigen Prognose, Frankfurt.

• Module exam (Data Analytics & Business Modeling, Risk Management & Monitoring, Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques, Mergers & Acquisitions)
• Online questions

German

2

33

1.5

• Blended Learning

2

Thilo Grundmann

1

2

integrated lecture

Compulsory

none